And from Fox Sports Dot Com...This Look At The Sox....
Interesting stuff here....read the entire article by clicking on the title...and I'll be back with a comment or two.....
"Other than getting on base, Boston did nothing particularly well in 2006. Over the last three seasons, Fenway has increased run scoring by roughly 6.0%, so that tends to make the pitching staff look a little worse than it really is and, conversely, the offense look a little better than it really is. With that said, run prevention — i.e., the rotation, the bullpen and the defense — was the primary shortcoming in 2006.
To the end of improving the run-prevention corps, the Red Sox have, of course, imported Matsuzaka. Any player making the leap stateside is a bit of an unknown quantity, but Matsuzaka figures to be a certifiable force. Expect 200 or so innings and a comfortably sub-4.00 ERA. He's just what the Sox need. Rounding out the rest of the rotation will be Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and, in all likelihood, Jonathan Papelbon. Beckett was never an ideal fit for Fenway, but he figures to improve on that 5.01 ERA he posted last season.
Schilling should be effective, Wakefield as a starter is a reliable purveyor of league-average innings, and Papelbon has enough of a repertoire to pass muster as a member of the rotation. The keys will be getting improvement (and health) from Beckett and getting a smooth transition (and health) out of Papelbon. Overall, expect a much better rotation in 2007."
Peter here, and I agree! The rotation should make us proud.....back to Fox Sports.....
"As for the bullpen, Hideki Okajima should provide reliable innings from the left side, and Joel Pineiro, provided he concentrates on the pitches he throws well (four-seamer, slider), should be a capable closer. Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez return, Brendan Donnelly will bolster the right-handed depth, and one-time closer of the future Craig Hansen should improve on his awful 2006 campaign. The additions of Pineiro, Okajima and Donnelly will be offset to a degree by the loss of Papelbon's innings, but overall expect a modestly improved relief unit."
Peter again....a modest improvement will be the worst I expect. If all the roles are set and the guys in the bullpen know what is expected of them, AND they perform up to the expectations we ALL have.....well, you do the math. We'll be fine!
The offense? Not a problem. And the defense, with the exception of shortstop, will carry us much like last year. So all in all, I like the 2007 Boston Red Sox, as our hopes are high. As they always are before spring training. But this year? This year might be special. And I can't wait. The days count down as we yearn for that special two word phrase..."PLAY BALL!" Let's do it!!!!
posted by Peter N @ 8:56 AM
26 comments
26 Comments:
The numbers suggest that Julio Lugo is likely a better overall shortstop defensively than Alex Gonzalez, due to his superior range.
His hands may not be as solid as Gonzo, but he's at least his equal, if not better. So that's nice- we won't be losing much infield defense.
Also, a huge upgrade defensively from Loretta to Pedroia.
I've NEVER seen a better defensive SS than AG, from way back to Rico. And his teammates agree. ...I hope Julio can come close. And when we think about all the plays over the course of an entire season, this is not even worth a disagreement between us.. We're in good shape! We love the same team! It does not get better!!!!! Thanks for the comment...keep reading, and I did leave a couple comments on your blog...did you enable comment notification? It's easy!!!!!
Wasn't agreeing, just passing on information. Here's a recent article attesting to this fact:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=176
Gonzo is very good, but the knock on him has always been that he's spectacular with the glove and has great hands, but pretty mediocre range. Lugo's gift has always been range, which is most important for an infielder.
I'm going to the link now, and thanks. Every link you leave in these comments are seen by many more than me! Take care......
T7, I did just read it...and that's one guy's opinion. Ask any 3 pitchers, starters from our Sox last year, and they will say that AG was and is one of the best SS guys ever. No matter what, we're fine.
More importantly.....you know what made me say WOW? The comment about JDD being a slight defensive minus from '06....TROT forever! Nixon...and I have to write about that! Thank you!!!!!!
Well, the article wasn't too negative about the Sox defense, but he used only statistics that supported his theme and you know what they say about statistics ... 42.7 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Seems like I remember something about some errorless games in a row. I certainly don't think we are worse off defensively this year.
The writing "voice' hasn't hit me, but I did subscribe to the free version of Baseball Prospectus. Thanks,although there is so much to be had if one wants to spend money. I don't, and Trot Nixon still sules!!!!!
BFW...you have a way being subtle...I like it....and yes, we're in good shape, no quibbling needed, if....if....if....someone steps up and becomes NEAR Paps-like.
Should be fun, huh????? I can't wait...Oh, T7, thanks again! Wow, my readers are the best!
"T7, I did just read it...and that's one guy's opinion."
No, it's all based on BP's advanced fielding metrics. No opinions involved, which is what's interesting about it.
I found the Drew/ Nixon thing surprising as well. Thankfully, Drew is still a plus defender, and a better hitter than Trot, so he's an overall upgrade.
I trust my eyes...not stats... stats that are so close....and if JDD can hit like Trot did in the mid-90s, we'll ALL be happy...take care...
Trot's first full season with more than 400 ABs wasn't until 2000. Trot Nixon has never had an offensive season as good as Drew's top years. Drew is just flat out better.
You can trust your eyes on the defense- to each his own- but these are guys that chronicle, in detail, every single ball hit to a given player over all 162 games.
It's been said many times- especially in "Moneyball," a great book- but where baseball's concerned, your eyes can lie to you. Especially w/r/t defense. These numbers are cold hard fact. They may have some flaws here or there, but they're a much more comprehensive detail of events than your eyes or mine, just by their nature.
My eyes have seen 'em all........baseball is not only a game of numbers, as some would have you believe. Thanks T7....over and out. And thanks, as always...I'm stubborn!
Are you predicting a JDD eason with more than 400ABs? I wish I knew that for sure!!!! We all do.
I'll be back later.........lunch, insulin, treadmill, and other stuff.
"Are you predicting a JDD eason with more than 400ABs? "
Absolutely.
My point though was that you said "as long as Drew hits like Trot in the mid-90s," and Trot was a minor leaguer for the most part in the mid-90s, and didn't get going until 2000, when he started a career that featured one, single season that could stand up to Drew's levels.
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And there's MORE, MUCH MORE, to this game we love than stats........heart, soul, the willingness to go the extra mile. And none of that shows up in the stats. You'll see as you experience the game further. I don't mean that as a diss.....OK? No need to answer.
And you're dead wrong about Lugo vs. AG......I'm letting it go, though...I'd rather have the pop in JL's bat any day. But defensively? C'mon.
Oh, and those were MY comments that I deleted a couple posts ago...spelling stupidity by yours truly (ME!).
The pitching was our weakest postion and had to be addressed.Offensively and defensively we were fine!
We could have been way better offensively if you want to compare 2003, 4 and 5 to last year. But you're right for the most part.
And wow, Anna Niocole Smith DEAD at 39! A shocker.......night everyone. Hasta manana!
I'm so excited it's almost baseball time!!
Julio Lugo is going to have to have a pretty great season in order to compare to the Gonz. He was solid as a rock last year (defensively!).
I agree Laura Offensively Maybe JULIO LUGO is better but,definately not defensively:)
Laura, you are exactly right. AGon is the superior defensive ss....what was it---5 errors last year with game-saving plays. The author of that article was in looney land! But Lugo will be good, with a bat that can hit lead-off.
Thanks for all the comments guys!!
"The author of that article was in looney land!"
The writer of that article was using scores of data created through tireless, endless work and years of trial and error to reach it's current evaluative state. Stats don't make up all of the game, but they are a record of FACT for what happens on a baseball field. There is absolutely no arguing this.
It does appear that, whether you like it or not, there is at the very least equal footing these players play on defensively.
How you would know this NOT to be true with any certainty without watching Lugo with any regularity is beyond me. You're asking me to take the word of someone that watched Gonzalez consistently over one season to people that have seen every single ball hit to both players multiple times over the entirety of their CAREERS. Why would I do that?
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